In preparation for the February 26th award ceremony celebrating the best movies of 2016, here are what I think will win in the categories I care about.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Luke Davis for Lion
Eric Heisserer for Arrival
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder for Hidden Figures
August Wilson for Fences
Personal - Arrival: This film was so clever in how it tied itself together. The way that the film structures it's story and reveals its twists is not dumbed down. The heavy themes it tackles while also juggling the likability of the characters is truly spectacular, and this tightly written film is all the better for the talent the writers poured into this film. This Interstellar for the thinking man is certainly a smart movie, and I thought no other film was written better last year.
Winner - Moonlight: A superb work by writer/director Barry Jenkins, Moonlight's script had to adapt a play based off of real people. The truly engrossing experience was one I was happy to dive into, and following Chiron throughout his life and following the twists and turns his life takes was a tremendous ride to experience. This script had to accomplish a lot in order to have us be planted in the shoes of a character while only showing three key moments in his life, each at very different ages. I could not name a single one of the actors portraying Chiron, and the performances they give is largely attributable to the writing.
Best Original Screenplay:
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou for The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
Mike Mills for 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan for Hell or High Water
Personal - The Lobster: An incredibly unique and challenging script that entertains for those willing to think long and hard in their film experience. A lot of this movie's success hung in the director's and writer's balance, as the performances in this film were intentionally bland. The dystopian future shown in this world is one that challenges our current perceptions on relationships and dating, with the emphasis showing how robotic and systematic our approach to relationships can be toxic and eventually damaging to our social life. Certainly not a film for everyone, and I'm not even sure if I could reason with myself to purchase my own copy, but the writing is certainly what sets this experience apart from anything else I have seen.
Winner - La La Land: An original story that challenges the audience, even if the challenging aspects aren't all too deep. The relationship between Sebastian and Mia is one we enjoy to see and are actively rooting for throughout the film. That and the seamless integration of notable musical scores and songs are what give this movie its life. Writer/director Damien Chazelle did an incredible job in his 3rd feature length film, one I can't wait to relive.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Viola Davis in Fences
Naomie Harris in Moonlight
Nicole Kidman in Lion
Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea
Personal - Naomie Harris: Naomi Harris had a tough job playing a coked out mom raising a shy gay boy. The intensity she brings to her role is nothing short of incredible and jaw-dropping. The progress she makes as a character alongside her co-stars. Naomie Harris brings the ferocity needed for such a gripping story and the range of emotions she had to pull off from start to end, and despite being such an empathetic and even reviled character, all at the same time, Naomie Harris pulls off this contradiction to perfection and provides a great performance.
Winner - Naomie Harris: This is what I consider to be the weakest of the four acting categories overall, but the power that these women bring should not be understated. That said, Naomie Harris really brought the power, and I imagine she will win.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel in Lion
Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals
Personal - Jeff Bridges: It all started when his character first show up, having just heard a man explain to him, a RANGER, that he would personally lynch the men who robbed the bank and felt confident that he wouldn't even find the tree. Bridges' response is a simple, "God I love West Texas". It's that kind of character, and Bridges plays it so well. I'm convinced he IS that character in real life honestly, even more than "The Dude". There is some nuance to his delivery, and the crusade he embarks on in the film's climax does add a new dimension to his character, one carried right to the end credits. Do I think this is objectively the best performance on the list? No, in fact, it probably is the least best, but I had fun to watch him every single time. This was a close one with Mahershala Ali for which one I enjoyed more, but the grizzled, old, Texas ranger won out in the end.
Winner - Mahershala Ali: Compared to the other actors on this list, Ali gets less screen time throughout the movie. But the impression he leaves and the fantastic portrayal is what leads me to think he will win. Without seeing Nocturnal Animals, Ali gave the most impactful and personable performance. It was a shame he wasn't there longer (only really shows up in the first act). But when he is there, he provides a performance worthy of Oscar gold.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Isabelle Huppert in Elle
Ruth Negga in Loving
Natalie Portman in Jackie
Emma Stone in La La Land
Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins
Personal - Natalie Portman: It should be no surprise that in a movie called Jackie, that it is Jackie that either made or broke it. Natalie Portman's performance in the cornerstone on which the film is built, and it is indeed a strong stone. Portman handles Jackie Kennedy's experiences during and after the assassination of her husband through a wide range of emotions and even influences. The film is edited anachronistically, so one scene of her almost intimidating the reporter conducting her private interview to her nervously preparing a TV program (pre-assassination). My favorite was a close race between the only two performances I saw on this list: Stone and Portman. Ultimately went with Portman, for carrying the weight of the movie in a more demanding role. I appreciate Stone for bringing to life a lovable and endearing character, while simultaneously stepping out of her comfort-zone into singing and dancing to great success. But outside of her audition and a few other spots, her work wasn't too intensive. Natalie Portman had to portray a woman holding half of her husband's head while wearing the other half on her face and clothes and did it to tremendous ability, and that's only the beginning of what Portman brings to the table.
Winner - Natalie Portman: Yeah, a moving performance filled with several nuances, emotion, and range, all while portraying a real person. I think it's fair to say the Academy loved this performance as much as I did.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling in La La Land
Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington in Fences
Personal - Casey Affleck: Casey turns in one of the most heartbreaking and gritty performances in a relatively understated movie possibly of all-time. Many may find the subtlety that he tackles the depressing parts of life he deals with to be unrealistic, but the reality is he probably understands the subtleties of depression and loneliness better than anyone, and turns in a really powerful performance because of it. Casey Affleck dives head first into a very difficult role and comes out the other end a better actor because of it. His character Lee Chandler is a tortured man, one who has shut himself out of his own happiness, and the portrayal that Casey Affleck gives is truly heartbreaking, because of how real it is. This performance is proof that theater runs in Affleck blood, and I am hoping Casey and Ben do something incredible together in the near future.
Winner - Andrew Garfield: It was a toss-up between Denzel Washington and Andrew Garfield for this, but I think Garfield portraying a real (badass) person is might be what puts him over the edge. He had a lot to do, including the accent, and pulled off an engrossing performance worthy of the top prize.
Best Director:
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Personal - Barry Jenkins: This was very close for me between Jenkins and Chazelle for me. The way Chazelle made the movie La La Land into such a stylized nostalgic experience was an impressive undertaking. But Damien Chazelle had Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone. Barry Jenkins had to run this show completely. He handled the screenplay and directing with only one notable actor and 2 actresses in the film; one of the actresses only breaking in the industry recently and the actor getting relatively little screen time. I love the way Chazelle made La La Land, but Barry Jenkins is mostly responsible for the greatness of Moonlight.
Winner - Damien Chazelle: Damien Chazelle perfectly emulates the look and feel of a classic musical from the 50's. A beautiful looking film with a charming style, Damien Chazelle does a fantastic job of stroking that Hollywood nostalgia and made a damn entertaining movie to boot. His direction makes a visually stunning movie in a style not seen in decades. This wonderful homage will undoubtedly stroke Hollywood's ego enough that Damien gets the honors for doing it.
Best Animated Feature Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Personal - Zootopia: OK, I admit it, I only saw Zootopia and Moana. I loved how Kubo and the Two Strings looked but heard the story was whatever, I'd I never heard of the other two. So it was a close race between Moana and Zootopia. Ultimately, I liked Zootopia more. I mean Moana had a great soundtrack, had mesmerizing animation and two great performances; but Zootopia was funny, clever, and bold. The subjects tackled in this movie and the risque humor that is used in this buddy-cop Disney movie made it a very enjoyable experience. Minus the few too convenient outs for our main characters and awful Shakira pop song, the race allegory was very clever, especially considering that it didn't focus on having the prey vs. predator as just one race versus another. It used racial history as a way to convey a very colorless message, and the lesson it leaves with kids is one that is vital in this divisive time. It's safe to say the Moana soundtrack is roughly 100 times better than the Zootopia one, but bolder script edges itself over the top for me.
Winner - Zootopia: Moana I think is the safer choice, as animated Disney musicals usually get the Oscar love, but Zootopia was seen by many to be the best Disney movie this year. The race allegory, the top notch animation, the likable characters and tight writing. I don't view this as the best animated Disney movie ever like others are (there are a couple things that don't sit very well with me), but the genius of this movie I think will ultimately pull off the upset.
Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Personal - Arrival: Just like in any other year, this isn't really a statement on why I like the other movies less, but why I like this other movie more, which honestly is just as hard to explain. Arrival made me think. It made me feel many emotions. On top of being a smart movie, the human aspect was necessary to make sure the audience really connects with the story. The real, gripping and visceral tone paired with the yin-yang of pessimism and optimism is what made this my favorite Best Picture nominated film.
Winner - La La Land: The Academy loves Hollywood. And you know what the Academy loves even more? Hollywood movies that love Hollywood. This is probably a big reason The Artist won several years ago in a very competitive year. La La Land sets out to be a passion project honoring the old MGM musicals from a by-gone age and does so while making it seem like not a day has gone by. I loved this movie, and the good vibes and great music are the basis for this film's 14 nominations. While probably not walking away with all 14, it's safe to say that they will get the most important one.
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